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COUNTDOWN TO ARTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE
Weak Artificial General Intelligence
WAIG is defined by an AI system that can complete most intellectual tasks a college-educated person can easily complete.
Artificial General Intelligence
AGI has robotic abilities and can complete all tasks that only certain human can complete in each domain of expertise, across domains
Super-Intelligent AI
ASI is superior to the best humans in their domain, in any domain.
Timeline
Professional forecasters now expect WAGI and AGI to be respectively introduced in 2026 and 2031. SAI is expected to be introduced a few months or years after. Some AGI labs in their recent statements are much more optimistic, expecting AGI in the next couple of years.
“Some experts believe that “sparks” of AGI (Bubeck et al., 2023) are already present in the latest generation of large language models (LLMs); some predict AI will broadly outperform humans within about a decade (Bengio et al., 2023); some even assert that current LLMs are AGIs (Agüera y Arcas and Norvig, 2023)”
Acceleration
The envisioned timeframe has dramatically changed over the past 24 months. Mid-2022 (prior to the public release of ChatGPT), forecasters estimated the most likely date for AGI around 2057. Similarly a survey of AI researchers estimated that we have a 50% chance of reaching human-level artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2059, three years earlier than anticipated in the 2016 edition of the same survey.
Metaculus Forecasts as of Nov 2023
Expected Impact of AGI on Professional Occupations
AGI and SAI will by design technically enable the replacement of most tasks and occupations possible, including tasks that require expertise, critical thinking, creativity and physical actuation.
There is a lot of uncertainty and a lack of conceptual framework to understand which tasks will be left for human workers and which new occupations might emerge.
Exploratory research on the matter usually assume that ‘protected’ tasks are associated with:
· In-person physical connection (e.g. childcare)
· In-person emotional connection (e.g. nurse),
· Providing human feedback to AI systems to ensure alignment with human goals (e.g. ethicist).
The impact on other tasks remain uncertain.
AI Transition Pathway
The chart above illustrates a scenario of transition to AGI, showing how more tasks are replaced with each generation of system and how task replacement translates into job replacement by AI systems. In this scenario all tasks become replaceable from a technical perspective, but not all jobs are replaced.
Source: authors, 2023
